OpenAI Fires Employee for Insider Trading on Polymarket — 77 Suspicious Trades Flagged

OpenAI has fired an employee for using confidential company information to trade on prediction markets — and the case is exposing a much larger problem. Financial analytics firm Unusual Whales has identified 77 suspicious trading positions across 60 wallet addresses tied to OpenAI-related events, suggesting this wasn't an isolated incident.

What Happened

"Our policies prohibit employees from using confidential OpenAI information for personal gain, including in prediction markets," said OpenAI spokesperson Kayla Wood. The company has not revealed the employee's name or the specifics of their trades. But the firing is just the tip of the iceberg.

77 Suspicious Trades

Polymarket runs on the Polygon blockchain, making its trading ledger pseudonymous but traceable. According to Unusual Whales' analysis, clusters of suspicious activity have appeared around OpenAI-themed events since March 2023 — including product launches like Sora, GPT-5, and the ChatGPT Browser, as well as leadership developments involving CEO Sam Altman.

The most damning example: 13 brand-new wallets with zero trading history appeared on Polymarket within 40 hours of OpenAI's ChatGPT Browser launch. Together, they bet $309,486 on the correct launch date. "When you see that many fresh wallets making the same bet at the same time, it raises a real question about whether the secret is getting out," said Unusual Whales CEO Matt Saincome.

The Regulatory Gap

Unlike traditional stock trading, where insider trading is clearly illegal under securities law, prediction markets exist in a regulatory twilight zone. Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi allow users to buy "event contracts" on everything from Super Bowl winners to AI company IPO timelines. While Kalshi has promoted its crackdown on insider trading, Polymarket has stayed silent. Google, Meta, and Nvidia also did not respond to inquiries about their policies regarding employees trading on prediction markets.

The Bottom Line

Prediction markets were supposed to be the future of information discovery. Instead, they've become the Wild West of insider trading. OpenAI firing one employee is a start, but 77 suspicious trades across 60 wallets suggests this is a systemic problem — not just at OpenAI, but across the entire tech industry. The question isn't whether regulators will step in, but when.

Source: Wired