Kalshi Goes Global: Prediction Market Platform Partners With Brazilian Brokerage XP

Kalshi prediction market platform expanding to Brazil with XP brokerage partnership

Kalshi, the US prediction market platform that lets you bet on everything from Fed rate decisions to Oscar winners, is going international for the first time. The company has partnered with XP Inc., Brazil's largest brokerage firm with 4.8 million active clients, to list event contracts in Latin America's biggest market.

Why Brazil?

Brazil is a natural first international market for several reasons. XP is massive — it's essentially the Schwab of Brazil, with millions of retail investors already comfortable trading derivatives and structured products. Brazilian investors are among the most active retail trading communities in the world, and the country has a growing culture of financial betting that prediction markets fit neatly into.

The partnership means Kalshi's event contracts will be accessible through XP's platform, instantly putting prediction markets in front of millions of Brazilian investors who are already onboarded, KYC-verified, and ready to trade.

What Are Event Contracts?

For those unfamiliar: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange where you can trade contracts based on the outcome of real-world events. Will the Fed cut rates at the next meeting? Will a specific movie gross over $100 million? Will it snow in New York on Christmas Day?

Each contract trades between $0 and $1, with the price reflecting the market's probability estimate. If you buy "Yes" at $0.70 and the event happens, you get $1. If it doesn't, you lose your $0.70. It's essentially a market-based prediction engine that has proven remarkably accurate at forecasting events — often outperforming polls and expert predictions.

Kalshi's Growth Story

Kalshi has been on a tear in the US. The platform has been working to broaden its user base beyond crypto-native traders, including an effort to attract more women — female users now account for 26% of Kalshi's user base, up from just 13% in May 2025. The company has been enlisting female influencers and diversifying its contract offerings to appeal to a broader demographic.

The Brazil expansion adds a massive potential user base. With 4.8 million active XP clients, even a small conversion rate could significantly boost Kalshi's trading volumes and international presence.

Regulatory Considerations

Prediction markets exist in a regulatory gray zone in many countries. Kalshi is one of the few platforms to secure full CFTC approval in the US, which took years of legal battles and regulatory navigation. Brazil's CVM (securities commission) regulates derivatives markets, and XP's existing regulatory infrastructure should help smooth the path for event contracts.

The partnership model — working through an established, regulated local broker rather than launching independently — is a smart regulatory strategy. It lets Kalshi leverage XP's compliance infrastructure while avoiding the need to obtain Brazilian regulatory approvals from scratch.

The Bottom Line

Kalshi's expansion to Brazil through XP is a significant milestone for prediction markets going mainstream globally. Instead of trying to build a user base from scratch in a new market, Kalshi is plugging into an existing network of 4.8 million active traders. If the model works in Brazil, expect similar partnerships in other major markets. The question is whether prediction markets can achieve the same cultural adoption internationally that they've seen in the US — where Kalshi has become a go-to source for real-time probability estimates on everything from elections to interest rates.