Covid-19 could push 207mn more people into extreme poverty: UNDP

An additional 207 million people could be pushed into extreme poverty by 2030, due to the severe long-term impact of the coronavirus pandemic, bringing the total number to more than a billion, a new UN Development Programme (UNDP) study has revealed.

According to the study released on Thursday, such a “high damage” scenario would mean a protracted recovery from Covid-19, anticipating that 80 per cent of the pandemic-induced economic crisis would continue over a decade, reports Xinhua news agency.

The gloomy scenario, is however, “not a foregone conclusion”, it said/

A tight focus on achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), could slow the rise of extreme poverty – lifting 146 million from its grip – and even exceed the development trajectory the world was on before the pandemic, the UNDP said.

Such an ambitious but feasible “SDG push” scenario would also narrow the gender poverty gap, and reduce the female poverty headcount, even taking into account the current impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic, the agency added.

A “Baseline Covid” scenario, based on current mortality rates and the most recent growth projections by the International Monetary Fund, would result in 44 million more people living in extreme poverty by 2030 compared to the development trajectory the world was on before the pandemic.

Achim Steiner, UNDP Administrator, highlighted that the Covid-19 pandemic is a “tipping point” and the future would depend on decisions made today.

“As this new poverty research highlights, the Covid-19 pandemic is a tipping point, and the choices leaders take now could take the world in very different directions.

“We have an opportunity to invest in a decade of action that not only helps people recover from Covid-19, but that re-sets the development path of people and planet towards a fairer, resilient and green future,” Steiner added.

The concerted SDG interventions suggested by the study combine behavioural changes through nudges for both governments and citizens, such as improved effectiveness and efficiency in governance and changes in consumption patterns of food, energy and water.

The proposed interventions also focus on global collaboration for climate action, additional investments in Covid-19 recovery, and the need for improved broadband access and technology innovation.

This publication is the first installation of a UNDP flagship report on the impact of the pandemic on the SDGs.

It focuses on the implications of the pandemic on poverty, education, health, nutrition and gender equality – also referred to as the “People” Goals in the 2030 Agenda.

In early 2021, subsequent publications will share new insights about impacts on other dimensions of the 2030 Agenda – with a focus on prosperity, peace and planet.

The study was jointly prepared by UNDP and the Pardee Center for International Futures at the University of Denver.

It assesses the impact of different Covid-19 recovery scenarios on sustainable development, and evaluates multidimensional effects of the pandemic over the next 10 years.