Covid deaths in US surpass past 5 flu seasons combined

Covid-19 has been responsible for more US deaths than the past five flu seasons combined.

According to a McKinsey report, 80 per cent of the deaths are people aged 65 plus similar to past influenza seasons.

The report said older people face higher mortality from Covid-19 compared to younger people. 25 per cent of US deaths have happened in nursing homes and long term care facilities.

The distribution of new cases in the US has shifted from the Northeast to the Southern and Western states.

The number of Covid cases may be similar to a flu season, depending on detection rates, but mortality is more severe.

The daily Covid Case Fatality Rate (CFR) is approaching 2 per cent globally and converging across regions, the report said. The Global Covid-19 Case Fatality Rate (CFR) has been declining since April approaching 2 per cent.

The reported number of cases is only a fraction of the total, due to asymptomatic or otherwise undetected cases. Seroprevalence data are limited but show significant variability across geographies.

Evidence shows pre- and symptomatic cases drive most infections, with asymptomatic also playing a role in transmission of Covid-19.

Transmission windows for individuals can range from 6-19 days. Although the SARS-CoV-2 virus does not appear to be directly affected by seasonal variations in weather, seasonality may contribute to changes in human behaviour (e.g., more indoor contacts) and so indirectly affect transmission.

There are significant disparities in outcomes of Covid-19 cases correlated with factors such as age, socioeconomic status, preexisting comorbidities, race/ethnicity and occupation, the report said.

The report said signs of increased risk of secondary complications3 are emerging in patients affected by Covid-19, such as MIS-C, pulmonary fibrosis, or pulmonary embolism.

Public health measures such as lock-downs/shelter-in-pace, test, trace and isolate, and face coverings have been shown to reduce transmission of Covid-19.

In the developed economies, a transition to a form of normalcy can come by Q1 or Q2 of 2021. The next normal might come when we can live without fear of ongoing mortality or long-term health consequences related to Covid-19.

This might be different from the old normal in surprising ways, and getting there will be gradual. However, the transition will enable many familiar scenes, such as air travel, bustling shops, humming factories, full restaurants, and gyms operating at capacity, to resume, the report said.