Intervention Impact: RBI expected to rein-in rising rupee

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to rein in any sharp appreciation in rupee due to hefty FIIs’ inflows during the upcoming week.

Experts contend that effects of large FIIs’ inflows will be neutralised by the RBI as it aims to keep the country’s exports competitiveness.

“Rendezvous with 73 is becoming interesting, with RBI defending it and showing resolve that chunky capital flows should not lead to a strong rupee and hurt India’s trade deficit,” said Sajal Gupta, Head, Forex and Rates, Edelweiss Securities.

“The RBI has made it clear that sovereign interest is paramount even at risk of being on the watch list for regular interventions. Equity markets look shaky now after a historical upmove and trade deficit rising strongly suggests that rupee strength might not come easy going forward.”

The RBI is known to enter the markets via intermediaries to either sell or buy US dollars to keep the rupee in a stable orbit.

Recently, the RBI was called out by the US Treasury Department to curtail its market activities.

“Rupee has appreciated back to 73 levels. In September month, when rupee came near these levels, RBI bought dollars aggressively and did not allow it to strengthen further,” said Devarsh Vakil- Deputy Head of Retail Research at HDFC Securities.

“We believe the RBI will step in now and protect the rupee’s competitiveness this time also. We expect rupee to reverse its recent appreciating trend in next few weeks. 72.9 is a strong support for the coming week.”

According to Rahul Gupta, Head of Research- Currency, Emkay Global Financial Services: “Next week is the US Fed policy, so the ultra-loose monetary policy along with the verbal intervention will have a negative reaction on the dollar. However, RBI is keeping the spot near 73 zones, so if that breaks we can expect the spot falling to 72.75, while 73.50 will continue to be the resistance.”

Besides, pre-Budget correction and high valuations in the equity market are expected to curb FIIs’ inflows to an extent, this, in turn will keep rupee in check.

Lately, FIIs inflows have powered a rally in equities and gave an appreciation push to the rupee.

However, the average inflow has fallen below the average of over Rs 2,500 crore per day which was witnessed during last month.