Healing Economy: Green shoots to support equity markets

Faster-than-anticipated economic recovery along with likely continuation of accommodative monetary stance will support the domestic indices’ expected northward trajectory during the week ahead.

However, spurts of likely profit bookings coupled with expensive propositions as well as any delay in anti-Covid vaccine rollout might arrest the potential up move.

“Equity markets could open higher on Tuesday, reflecting the positivity of the Q2 GDP numbers. Nifty continues to consolidate after reaching a high on Novmeber 25,” said Deepak Jasani- Head of Retail Research at HDFC Securities.

“An upward breach of 13,146 is necessary to expect more upsides while a downward breach of 12,833 could bring in more downsides and mean that a temporary top has been made on November 25.”

Last Friday, official data showed that India’s gross domestic product (GDP) contracted 7.5 per cent in the July-September period, as the economy rebounded from a record slump of 23.9 per cent in the previous quarter due to slowdown caused by the coronavirus pandemic.

This figure was higher than anticipated by the market.

Among sectors, automobile industry will be in focus during the holiday-shortened week, as the industry will divulge its sales performance during November.

The main festive season of 2020 ended last month and investors expect healthy sales performance from the sector.

“Going ahead, the overall structure of the market remains positive, but intermittent profit booking cannot be ruled out, given the sharp rally in the past few weeks,” said Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Retail Research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services.

“Auto companies will be in focus as November sales data will start coming from Tuesday, while banks or financials will be in focus as the RBI’s Monetary Policy is scheduled for Friday.”

The Reserve Bank’s MPC is scheduled to announce the last review for the calendar year 2020.

“The present liquidity glut, and the low-interest rates, will lead to improvements in the cost of funds for corporates and thereby their performance to a significant extent,” said Joseph Thomas, Head of Research – Emkay Wealth Management.

Market watchers opined that the RBI will maintain both repo rate and accommodative stance.

According to Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services: “Markets are awaiting outcome major events like RBI policy meeting, release of Manufacturing and Service PMI and banking business data which will be decisive factors driving the market in the upcoming week.”

The India’s benchmark equity indices, will be closed on Monday to mark Guru Nanak Dev’s birth anniversary.