India’s FY21 GDP contraction has already crossed the (-) 6.8 per cent mark for 2020-21, SBI Ecowrap report said on Monday.
An earlier Ecowrap report had estimated GDP for FY21 was 2.6 per cent when India had first imposed lockdown.
Since then, the GDP forecast has been progressively reduced to a negative 6. 8 per cent in FY21.
“Now the situation has changed drastically and India has climbed to 3rd position in overall Covid-19 cases in the world with more than 26 lakh total cases (12 per cent of global tally),” the report said.
“During Unlock-1 since June 1 the spread of pandemic has increased significantly and almost 93 per cent of total cases have come post June 1. Owing to this, various states have again imposed partial lockdown (like West Bengal, Bihar, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, etc.) in staggered manner.”
Accordingly, using the bottom-up approach the report estimated total GSDP loss due to Covid-19 is at 16.8 per cent of GSDP.
“State-wise analysis indicates that top 10 states accounted for 73.8 per cent of total GDP loss with Maharashtra contributing 14.2 per cent of total loss followed by Tamil Nadu (9.2 per cent) and Uttar Pradesh (8.2 per cent),” the report said.
“Subsequently, the per capita loss for all India is around Rs 27,000 with states like Tamil Nadu, Gujarat, Telangana, Delhi, Haryana, Goa, etc. exhibiting loss of more than Rs 40,000 per person in FY21.”